Recession is over again, but it is yet to be over in the future

While credit card figures show highest defaults and Obama addresses Americans promising them real solution to the national crisis Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke makes a statement that the worst U.S. recession since the Great Depression was probably over. This “probably over” we have been hearing since the time when first reports with positive figures were released. Each time there is some improvement politicians and officials start trumpeting the end of recession.

"Even though from a technical perspective the recession is very likely over at this point, it's still going to feel like a very weak economy for some time," Bernanke said at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank.

Well, now there is a new term: “from a technical perspective”. Yeah, this is surely less loud and bold expression and can be interpreted further as an explanation of why we still cannot feel with our own finger-pads. Anyway it is obvious that all the speeches and appearances are aimed to help us stay calm otherwise we would be either panic or excessively malcontent. On the other hand we are still not left unaware of the real situation that is always reported after “but” conjunction in all the official statements: recession is very likely over, but we are going to feel like a very weak economy for some time.

"The general view of most forecasters is that that pace of growth in 2010 will be moderate, less than you might expect given the depth of the recession because of ongoing headwinds," Bernanke said, citing tight credit conditions and other economic restraints.

"There are risks on both sides of that forecast," he said. "But if we do in fact see moderate growth, but not growth much more than the underlying potential growth rate, then unfortunately, unemployment will be slow to come down."

Asked about the Obama administration's plan for a sweeping overhaul of U.S. financial regulation, Bernanke said he was optimistic it would be concluded, but acknowledged that U.S. lawmakers have so far been more focused on health-care reform.

"I feel quite confident that a comprehensive reform will be forthcoming. This has just been too big a calamity and too serious a problem, and clearly regulatory problems were part of it," he said.