When will China recover from the crisis?

Economists expect first-quarter GDP figures for China to be released on Thursday morning in Beijing (9 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday) to mark the low point from which a recovery will follow.

Dong Tao, Credit Suisse's Chief Asian Economist in Hong Kong, stated that “The worst of statistics in terms of GDP are probably behind us,” adding it was either “the fourth quarter of last year, or the first quarter of this year."

Dow Jones Newswires has provided data of 15 economists surveyed, which showed that estimated GDP growth of China has slowed to 6% in the January-March quarter compared to a 6.8% in the fourth quarter of the last year. 

It should also be reminded that there was 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package introduced in China in order to help overcome negative outcomes of the crisis. So far, economists have been satisfied with the results: money supply, as measured by M2, has expanded 25.5% against the first quarter of last year; banks extended loans to 4.58 trillion yuan in the quarter, whereas only 4.9 trillion yuan in the whole 2008. Moreover, Parpart estimates that China's foreign exchanges reserves are to increase by an additional $300 billion from about $2 trillion this year. 

The government is concerned that economic slowdown might increase unemployment. Currently, there are about 20 million out of 140 million migrant factory workers who have lost their jobs. 

Examples of some more data that is already known could be: China's trade surplus widened to $18.6 billion in March from $4.8 billion in February; new car sales in China reached a record 1.1 million units; exports in March contracted 17.1% from last year with shipments to the U.S. rebound 25.8% from the previous month, and of European Union increase 21.2%.