Exiting a forex trade system

August 7, 2009 - 12:21am | Articles | Investment industry |
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Exiting a forex trade system

Exiting a forex trade is the important phase during your forex market trading and this is the point at which you get to realize whether you have made a profit or a loss. Entering any forex market is very simple but exiting the market is what makes a trader realize what kind of strategies to adopt and what kind of trading system s/he should employ. Exiting a trade is the very moment when you get to place profits in your pocket but this is not simple at all.

Several strategies do not tell you when and how to exit a trade and this become very difficult for the traders especially the beginners. forex trading can become very complex for traders especially if you have difficulties on how to exit a trade. There are several things you would have to learn and understand on how you can exit a trade effectively and this article will help you on how best you can exit any forex trade market.

When is the best time to exit a forex trade? Before we can come up with the answers, it is important to identify two important factors such as (1) the risk the system will tolerate and (2) your individual risk tolerance factor.

A system which looks interesting with wonderful features may not at all be the system that fits your needs. You need to consider several factors such as how you consider stop loss potentials, trading frequencies and the extent to which you can tolerate these aspects. Working on the forex trade system is very challenging and can be very complicated such as stop and limit orders and profit target generation. Nonetheless, they are several resources that will greatly assist in handling these issues.

Building a stops and developing appropriate profit targets are major considerations and is composed of three parts in developing the stops and profit and entry/exit targets.

1. Using of effective signals for estimating profit targets/exit points based on previous results.

It is always a good practice to develop an estimate of the market’s movement in instances when trades are successful.

So you need to be able to know when the price is going to swing again. All this is down to some good trend analysis of the market, technical indicators by your side and your eyes glued to the news. Fundamental analysis is also important, because a single announcement in the financial arena could mean the market getting the jitters and pulling out, causing a massive change in market predictions. Also central banks and governments are also known to change market movements to benefit a single currency or to balance the market momentum.

Figuring out exits is similar to predicting the future. It is extremely difficult if not impossible. Knowing for sure where to exit requires aiming for a specific target. However, keep in mind that setting a target restricts the profits from running. Here are some other signals that you can look at when you strategize your exit trade:

1. Fractals. Using fractals allows you to know when to change the stop and to follow the market down as it goes.

2. Resistance/Support. You can decide on an exit on some resistance/support area targeted on a higher timeframe.

3. Fibs. Fib extensions are your magic wand. Use it for your own good.

4. Moving average. Set a stop right behind the moving average.

5. Also consider scaling. Consider closing half at the original target, run balance and see how things progress. If the market pulls back to the original target, then you can simply close the balance. In other case, run a trailing stop.

6. A protective stop protects your trading capital, it is your initial trade risk. Before a trade is even entered your should know where your protective stop will be - this is your maximum loss (barring any slippage on the exit). There are many different ways to determine a protective stop on a trade:

Set dollar amount - Say $500 on every trade
Percentage retracement - Say 10% from the entry price
Volatility - A percentage of the average true range of the previous x bars
Moving Averages - the opposite of the moving average entry
Channel breakouts - the opposite of the channel breakout entry
Based on areas of support and resistance stops
Time - If a position is not in profit after a certain length of time then it is exited.

2. Establishing stop loss for normal volatility but looks after the capital.

The proper establish of stop loss can determine the success or the failure of the system. It is important to just set stop loss at a normal level-not to tight to a point where positive trading may have whipsaws and be missed; and not so much loose where general profits will fall sharply due to loss of efficiency that comes along with the losses. For instance, a trader is torn between a 75 pip and 100 pip stop loss decision to implement in a system. The 75 pip stop loss will potentially save the trader 25 pips on a mishandled trading. But do you think the trader also considers the opportunity that was lost if the lesser stop loss will be whipsawed? On the other hand, if given the instance that the market moves to 80 pips and then achieves a 600 pip target, the smaller stop was supposed to have been smacked. With this in mind, opportunity costs for a tight stop should be taken into consideration.

3. Examining the system for performance assessment and identifying the hazards of too much optimization.

Now how do we decide or how should we choose the correct stop size? Naturally put, if you have more money to loose then you can decide liberally on this issue. However this can be quite a personal approach and many not always prove to be the best decision. This is where a system that can automate this process comes in. Automation can very well assess if a stop size is efficient and if it has been over-optimized. A trading system will aid in the planning process and will potentially help you trade confidently setting aside a biased or personal approach. This is because the facts and the real scenario may be presented to you fully before you engage in stock market trading.

Once all these guidelines have been understood you will certainly be able to create a great income for yourself through forex trading and you will soon be able to teach how forex trading works to other novice traders.




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